There Are Smarter Ways to Disarm Iran than ‘Bunker-Busting’

Iran is uniquely vulnerable to economic throttling without either American boots in Tehran or massive civilian casualties

The decision to bomb or not bomb Iran is splitting everyone from world leaders to Democrats to MAGA influencers.

But why do we talk as if bombing is the only option? If we want Iran to surrender its nuclear ambitions, there may be less destructive paths.

The regime is now as helpless as Japan was in March 1945, when we firebombed Tokyo with impunity even before Hiroshima and Nagasaki. Israel owns its skies; there is little Iran can do to prevent its cities from being burned to cinders.

But it needn’t come to that.

Hitting the Fordo underground bomb factory with our much-touted GBU-57 “bunker-buster” may not even work. Despite all the hoopla, some experts believe it could be an embarrassing failure if the rock above is thick enough and the bunker’s concrete flexible enough. Previous, albeit smaller, “bunker-busters” have failed in the past, including during the Iraq war, when one of two we dropped simply missed.

Leveling Iran’s cities would be a cruel mistake. Many Iranians hate their theocratic government and would happily see it fall. Massive civilian deaths could unite them behind it.

And of course, we don’t want to capture Tehran as we did Baghdad and Kabul. Occupying a defeated country can become an expensive deathtrap, as we learned in Iraq and Afghanistan, Napoleon learned in Moscow and the British learned in Boston and New York.

Iran’s economy is highly vulnerable because most of its energy exports are based offshore and within easy reach — not for Israel, but for us.

With two carrier groups headed to the area and multiple air and naval bases on the southern coast of the Persian Gulf, there are ways to put pressure on the regime. Yes, we would have to sink or bottle up Iran’s small navy and destroy its anti-ship missile installations, but that should be feasible without many casualties.

More than 90 percent of Iran’s oil is loaded at Kharg Island in the northwestern Persian Gulf. It can berth six tankers at a time and is reported to be rushing its oil out.

The island is 20 miles off Iran’s coast, fed by pipelines. We could impose a naval blockade, have Marines seize the island or simply stop every tanker leaving and force them to divert to friendly ports.

China buys most of Iran’s oil, and that supply could become another bargaining chip in the Trump administration’s wrangles with Xi Jinping. We could sell them the oil, put the money in escrow and assure the Iranians that, once they accede to our demands, they’ll get it.

Most of Iran’s natural gas comes from its Pars field under the Persian Gulf, which is more than 50 miles from the mainland and shared with Qatar. Israel has already bombed both the platforms and the onshore processing plant, but it would be simpler and less disruptive to global energy markets to seize the platforms and either shut off the wells or divert the gas to nations willing to cooperate. Turkey, for example, would probably put its payments in escrow as long as it got its regular supplies.

With their export income gone, Iran’s already weak economy would collapse further.

Trump’s “UNCONDITONAL SURRENDER” tweets may read like cartoonish posturing, but ours probably should be as uncompromising as the demand for total surrender that the Potsdam Declaration made of Japan.

They should include:

American and Israeli teams should get access all of Iran’s nuclear and missile-building facilities, including Fordo, to remove or destroy all their centrifuges, other equipment, and fissile material.

Second, Iran should give up uranium enrichment and submit to international inspections confirming it has. Any fuel needed for power plants can be supplied from outside and returned when it’s spent.

Third, Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, his Guardian Council and the rest of the ruling elite should surrender to the International Criminal Court in the Hague to be tried. The ICC cannot impose the death penalty, so that fate could be preferable to waiting for an Israeli bomb.

If that pressure doesn’t force the issue, we could increase it by crippling Iran’s domestic economy. After warnings to prevent civilian casualties, we could bomb the pipelines and pylons supplying gas and electricity to the cities, the key bridges, highway overpasses and railroads used for moving goods, and any other infrastructure local commerce depends on. Drone and satellite surveillance could assure they were not repaired without our permission.

If that too failed, we could support the Israelis in commando raids against Fordo and other bomb-resistant sites. That would mean extensive preparations: capturing forward air and infantry bases in southern Iran, positioning fuel and ammunition and using air power to obliterate any Iranian units that resisted. It would take weeks, but it would be far surer than dropping one big bomb with our fingers crossed.

And then we should quickly get out rather than getting trapped in trying to control Iran’s destiny. Unfortunately, economic collapse and leadership decapitation will probably trigger a civil war between the hard-liners and the reformers. But it wouldn’t be Persia’s first civil war and whatever government emerged could hardly be worse than the “Death to America, Death to Israel” policy we’ve tolerated for 47 years.

We could also show some imagination and produce carrots as well as sticks. For example: we could offer Iran’s surviving nuclear and missile scientists the same deal we offered Wernher von Braun and 1,600 of Hitler’s best under Operation Paperclip: jobs in the U.S. They would have to pass interrogation, swear loyalty to the Constitution and live with close monitoring of their electronic and personal contacts — but many might happily take the deal, especially with their families included. Iran even has some of the world’s best concrete designers. (Who knew ? But not so surprising in a country that has a history of major earthquakes and a bunker fetish.) Given our failing infrastructure, we could use their expertise.

In any case, there are alternatives to seeing everything through the bunker-buster lens as the networks seem to.